Electric vehicles as an emission mitigation option: expectations and reality

Abstract

Globally, the reliance on thermal power, constituting 67% of electricity generation, prompts questions for many countries regarding the viability of electric vehicles (EVs) for emission reduction in the transportation sector. This study comprehensively analyzes CO2 emissions in the small family car segment, considering engines powered by different energy sources. The analysis is coupled with Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure driving profiles, accounting for specific ambient temperature structures representative of densely populated areas in Türkiye. The constructed model incorporates the hourly temperature of the relevant cities and the hourly electricity production mix by considering the indirect emissions and comparing the ICEVs (Internal Combustion Engine Vehicles) and EVs in different time frames from 2015 to 2020. The resulting emissions from each vehicle type in each city and driving profile, along with the ratio of instances in which EVs exhibit higher emissions than ICEVs, are presented.The findings reveal the intricate interplay between vehicle type, climate conditions, and driving profiles. While the urban driving profile emerges as superior for EVs regarding CO2 reduction, offering a comfortable driving experience without range anxiety and mitigating local pollutants, it exhibits less significant carbon emission reductions at lower and higher speed profiles, particularly in cold climate conditions. EVs are not a silver bullet but a valuable technology for emissions reduction under specific conditions. Policymakers are urged to consider factors favoring EVs over ICEVs regarding CO2 emissions, such as driving profiles, time and climatic conditions when formulating investment policies and subsidies. Graphical abstract