Landscape sensitivity-based scenario analysis using flus model: a case of Asarsuyu watershed

Abstract

The landscape is a dynamic and multidimensional concept which includes natural and/or cultural components, ecosystems, relations and processes. The sustainability of landscapes depends on the harmony of these ecosystems. Particularly, it is important to identify areas where the landscape is sensitive within the basin and to restrict urban growth in these areas. However, the land cover change that occurs in the form of transformation from natural areas to cultural areas undermines the operability of the processes within the landscape. In this study, two different scenarios regarding land cover change have been developed using the FLUS model for Asarsuyu Watershed between the years 2018-2036 and 2036-2054. With these scenarios, the areas where landscape is sensitive are revealed and the urban growth is restricted in areas where landscape sensitivity is very high and high. In this respect, landscape sensitivity studies provide an important tool for guiding urban growth in an ecological framework.