Foresights, Scenarios, and Sustainable Development: A Pluriformity Perspective

Abstract

‘If … then …’ is a conditional proposition that describes precisely a logical causal statement about possible future events. Obtaining due insight into an uncertain future has been a permanent source of rational speculation in the history of mankind. In the Hellenistic period, the foundation for systematic foresight analysis was already laid by the Oracle of Delphi which – in contrast to popular wisdom – was not based on the incoherent utterances of an ancient intoxicated goddess but on evidence-based information collected by her through listening to the subordinates of any political figure who wanted to pick up a useful hint on how to face the future. The medieval and premodern literature was also full of seemingly rational attempts to predict uncertain future events, such as catastrophes or wars. The aim to acquire political power was often an inspiration for obtaining strategic future information on unknown territories, as is clearly reflected in the support of leading dynasties in European countries for the great voyages of discovery from the fifteenth to the eighteenth century.