GNSS Time Series Analysis with Machine Learning Algorithms: A Case Study for Anatolia

Abstract

This study addresses the potential of machine learning (ML) algorithms in geophysical and geodetic research, particularly for enhancing GNSS time series analysis. We employed XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to analyze GNSS time series data from the tectonically active Anatolian region. The primary objective was to detect discontinuities associated with seismic events. Using over 13 years of daily data from 15 GNSS stations, our analysis was conducted in two main steps. First, we characterized the signals by identifying linear trends and seasonal variations, achieving R2 values of 0.84 for the XGBoost v.2.1.0 model and 0.81 for the LSTM model. Next, we focused on the residual signals, which are primarily related to tectonic movements. We applied various threshold values and tested different hyperparameters to identify the best-fitting models. We designed a confusion matrix to evaluate and classify the performance of our models. Both XGBoost and LSTM demonstrated robust performance, with XGBoost showing higher true positive rates, indicating its superior ability to detect precise discontinuities. Conversely, LSTM exhibited a lower false positive rate, highlighting its precision in minimizing false alarms. Our findings indicate that the best fitting models for both methods are capable of detecting seismic events (Mw ≥ 4.0) with approximately 85% precision.