A comparison of fuzzy logic and multiple regression analysis models in determining contingency in international construction projects

Abstract

Purpose – The main objective of this paper is to show how fuzzy logic and multiple regression analysis (MRA) techniques can be used by construction companies for determining the size of contingency that will be included in bid prices for international construction projects in a more systematic way and to compare their modelling performances. Design/methodology/approach – The steps followed in the execution of this study mainly consists of: conducting a literature review on international construction in order to identify the factors that may affect contingency amounts that will be included in bid prices for international construction projects; developing the general framework of the proposed contingency estimation model; designing a questionnaire based on the information gathered from the literature review, delivering these questionnaires to construction experts, and obtaining the actual data of 36 international construction projects; developing a fuzzy logic model based on expert judgments and three multi...