A novel scenario planning approach considering criteria interaction in multi-criteria evaluation: An application to urban mobility

Abstract

This study proposes a new scenario planning approach which consists of two main stages: evaluating scenarios under multiple criteria and selecting a manageable number of representative scenarios covering a wide range of future developments. In the evaluation stage, the interaction between criteria has been considered, which offers a significant contribution both to the scenario literature and practice. In the selection stage, a mathematical programming model has been developed to ensure the selection of distinct scenarios with high evaluation values. The approach is applied to an urban mobility system in a metropolitan area. The selected scenarios provide valuable insights into the future of urban mobility, serving as a basis for identifying strategies. The proposed approach does not offer a solution only for scenario planning problems, it can be effectively applied to similar problems in different areas.