Potential Effects of Climate Change on Black Sea Water Temperatures

Abstract

There is a consensus that the Black Sea is affected by climate change in many ways. The Black Sea Physical Reanalysis system and Argo measurements are used for analyzing not only sea surface temperature (SST), but also the entire Black Sea over the period from 1993 to 2019. Linear regression and Mann-Kendall tests are used for detecting trends and the Pearson-correlation coefficient is used for detecting correlation between data sets. Results show that the entire Black Sea has been warming with few abrupt exceptions such as in 2012 and 2017. In addition, water masses in the upper water column have been warming (CIL = 0.012 °C/year, BSSW (Black Sea Surface Water) and BSCW (Black Sea Coastal Water) = 0.096 °C/year). However, there is no statistically significant trend in deeper parts of the Black Sea. The western shelf, especially its west coasts, is the region that is most open to seasonal changes in the Black Sea.