Determination of Urban Expansion Areas by Parcel Based Estimation Model (Saray Case Study)

Abstract

<title>Abstract</title> <p>Population growth causes urban spatial expansion and harms ecological units on the periphery of cities. Determining the growth trends of an urban area is vital in developing predictive planning techniques, defining manageable urban processes, directing investments to be made in the city, and increasing the quality of life with the balance between natural and built environment. It is a necessary planning tool for determining the dynamics affecting the expansion directions of the urban area and determining the possible urban growth areas with a holistic approach, detecting the possible problems that may occur in the future and finding solutions to these problems. The scope of this study is to build a model that predicts the possible urban expansion areas. The model is developed in line with the main criteria defined as proximity, natural environments, built-up environments, and plan decisions. The weights of each criterion and related sub-criteria were determined with the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). As a result of the study, the most probable urban development areas that will serve the 2040 projection population for the city of Saray were determined. This study aims to predict the growth direction of the urban area and determine the areas under the pressure of construction depending on the city's current dynamics. Thus, a practical urban growth estimation model has been put forward for future planning studies. The model results show that the city of Saray is inclined to continue its urban form as mono-centric and compact in the year 2040.</p>