A new insight to the wind speed forecasting: robust multi-stage ensemble soft computing approach based on pre-processing uncertainty assessment

Abstract

In this research, monthly wind speed time series of the Kirsehir was investigated using the stand-alone, hybrid and ensemble models. The artificial neural networks, Gaussian process regression, support vector machines and multivariate adaptive regression splines were employed as stand-alone machine learning models, while the discrete wavelet transform was utilized as a pre-processing technique to create hybrid models. Moreover, for the first time in wind speed predictions, we generated a multi-stage ensemble model by using the M5 Model Tree (M5) algorithm to increase the model accuracies. Two major tasks considered to be necessary, in which the first is to obtain the lag times by using autocorrelation functions, and the latter is to determine the optimum mother wavelet as well as the decomposition level to reduce the uncertainties in wavelet modeling. The results revealed that the hybrid wavelet models outperformed the stand-alone models, while a significant improvement was also observed in M5 ensemble models as the highest Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient values were obtained in M5 hybrid wavelet multi-stage ensemble models for each lead time prediction. The findings of the study were assessed with respect to the various performance indicators and Kruskal–Wallis test to indicate whether the results are statically significant. The proposed multi-stage ensemble framework also benchmarked with the classical tree-based ensembles, such as Random forest, AdaBoost and XGBoost.