Extreme precipitation climate change scenario evaluation over Turkey

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are the most important quantities for flood occurrences in any area and especially for groundwater recharge in arid and semi-arid regions. Their future predictions help to provide a scientific basis for evaluation and management of water resources potential. The main purpose of this paper is to expose the extreme precipitation occurrence estimations based on the A1B scenario for Turkey by using a regional climate model (RCM). According to first result of this study, although the winter season results indicate significant increase in the extreme precipitation amount around the Northern Aegean and Eastern Black Sea regions for near future (2021-2060) and around Southern Aegean and Western Black Sea regions for far future periods (2061-2100), significantly decreasing trend appear in the Northern Iraq, Northern Syria, Mediterranean coasts and Southeastern Anatolia for both future periods. Another important result is that increase in the precipitation is expected in the Northern Iraq, Northern Syria and Southeastern Anatolia for both future periods in autumn season.