A conceptual risk modelling for cargo tank fire/explosion in chemical tanker by using Evidential Reasoning -SLIM and Bayesian belief network approach

Abstract

The transportation of hazardous cargoes, particularly in chemical tankers, represents significant risks such as fire and explosion, which can have catastrophic consequences for both human life, commodity and maritime environment. This article presents a conceptual risk modelling for cargo tank fire/explosion incidents in chemical tanker ships under the Evidential Reasoning (ER)- Success likelihood index method (SLIM) approach with the Bayesian belief network (BBN) to provide a practical tool for assessing and managing the associated risks. Whilst the ER-SLIM approach offers a systematic human error probability (HEP) prediction and handling uncertainty in risk, allowing for the incorporation of expert judgments and data-driven information, the BBN provides a probabilistic graphical model to represent the causal relationships among various risk factors. The result shows that the risk of cargo tank fire/explosion during the cargo tank cleaning operation is calculated as 2.83E-02. The findings of the research including consequences analysis provide valuable insights for decision-makers, safety managers, superintendents, ship masters and officers in the maritime industry to prioritize risk management strategies and enhance the safety of chemical tanker operations.