Streamflow Estimation through Coupling of Hieararchical Clustering Analysis and Regression Analysis—A Case Study in Euphrates-Tigris Basin

Abstract

In this study, the resilience of designed water systems in the face of limited streamflow gauging stations and escalating global warming impacts were investigated. By performing a regression analysis, simulated meteorological data with observed streamflow from 1971 to 2020 across 33 stream gauging stations in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin were correlated. Utilizing the Ordinary Least Squares regression method, streamflow for 2020–2100 using simulated meteorological data under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios in CORDEX-EURO and CORDEX-MENA domains were also predicted. Streamflow variability was calculated based on meteorological variables and station morphological characteristics, particularly evapotranspiration. Hierarchical clustering analysis identified two clusters among the stream gauging stations, and for each cluster, two streamflow equations were derived. The regression analysis achieved robust streamflow predictions using six representative climate variables, with adj. R2 values of 0.7–0.85 across all models, primarily influenced by evapotranspiration. The use of a global model led to a 10% decrease in prediction capabilities for all CORDEX models based on R2 performance. This study emphasizes the importance of region homogeneity in estimating streamflow, encompassing both geographical and hydro-meteorological characteristics.