Data-driven methodology for uncertainty quantification of aircraft trajectory predictions

Abstract

This work present a framework based on datadriven techniques for quantifying and chaos theory for propagating the uncertainty present in the aircraft trajectory prediction process when computing the expected trajectory from a given flight plan. The developed framework employs data assimilation models to capture real-time information from the air traffic system and introduces a novel methodology in order to account for the uncertainty of the weather conditions. The comparison of the resulting set of probabilistic trajectories and the actually flown ones proves how the former could be a key enabler to support envisioned trajectory-based operation concepts and modern airline operations planning.Objectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::9 - Indústria, Innovació i InfraestructuraObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::12 - Producció i Consum Responsables