Implementation and comparison of different methods for the estimation of aircraft take-off weight based on ADS-B data

Abstract

The take-off weight (TOW) is the total weight of aircraft before flight, summation ofstructural weight, passenger and crew weight, cargo weight and fuel weight. TOWhas a significant effect on fuel efficiency, load planning, safety, route planning, andengine performance modelling. Eventhough airlines have the TOW values of flights,they are not open to public. For this reason, there are TOW estimation methods basedon Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) data. The more accurateTOW provides the more accurate engine models. This thesis implement the selectedestimation methods and compare the results in terms of their accuracy to provide theresearchers a reliable method to estimate TOW.Before comparing the estimation methods, the validation mass should be calculated.Two different analytical methods to find validation mass are applied. Based on thevariables these two methods can be applied to find the TOW. The validation masscan be found by the aircraft dynamic model in the cruise phase and reference speedin the last approach. After finding validation TOW, four analytical estimations areimplemented. The methods are, the total energy equation, aircraft dynamic model atthe lift-off moment, recursive method in the take-off phase, and the reference speedapproach based on the ADS-B data. The variables and assumptions that affect theresult when applying the methods are specified. These methods were then comparedto the validation mass in terms of accuracy. In addition, since the estimated masses canalso be obtained at later stages of the flight, the real fuel consumption was calculatedusing Flight Data Recorder (FDR) data and fuel consumption was estimated accordingto time and distance.To carry out these project, a comprehensive dataset of FDR data, including 36commercial airplanes and 186 flight parameters, is used. These data include ADS-Blike data with the paramaters that used to obtain validation TOW such as; fuel flow,fuel quantity, angle of attack, true airspeed, Mach number, and dynamic pressure.The ADS-B data should encompass at least groudspeed, latitude and longitude, flightpath angle, timestamp, call sign, altitude, direction and Coordinated Universal Time(UTC). Preprocessing is made by data cleaning and smoothing, since the flight dataare fluctuating and noisy.The results of the study are compared visually and in terms of meaningfullness. Ifthe result in between operating empty weight (OEW) and maximum take-off weight(MTOW), it can be said that the results are meaningfull. Among the methods, thereference speed in the last approach has the best result by only root mean squared erroras 4903 kg with mean absolute percentage error as 10.3%. This method takes into consider the last approach and use the average speed in that region. This provide themethod to be less affected by the noise and fluctuation. The drawback of this methodis that it estimates the landing mass. This brings with it the need for that the fuelconsumption estimation should be estimated accurately.In conclusion, this method provides quantitative accuracy of the implemented methodsbased on ADS-B data to the researchers. The outcomes of this thesis highlight thepoints to be considered during the application of the method and makes a comparison.The results of this thesis can contribute to future research and practical applications inaviation industries.