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ÖgeImpacts of climate change on tourism sector in Turkey: Challenges and future prospects(Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü, 2021) Aygün, Aysun ; Baycan, Tüzin ; 663244 ; Şehir ve Bölge PlanlamaTourism has 10.4% contribution to global GDP and 10% to global employment that makes it one of the most critical economic sectors. The tourist motivation, destination choices and travel time decisions are the most questioned issues in tourism literature while climate change may change those dynamics. Climate is one of the factors in travel timing, type of tourism activities, destination and length of stay. Climatic attributes are especially important on climate sensitive and climate dependent tourism activities that require specific climate conditions. For example, winter tourism requires specific snow cover and weather conditions for sports tourism, trekking, hiking or climbing are preferred under specific climate conditions that ensures safety. The changing climate is expected to have inevitable social, economic and environmental consequences which the tourism sector itself will also face. Climate change and tourism have two-sided interaction; tourism activities especially transportation demand generate a great amount of greenhouse gas emission, on the other hand, tourism activities are highly sensitive to climate change impacts. Climate change will cause warmer temperatures, extreme weather events and precipitation change. The first impact, temperature increase, is expected to affect today's popular destinations that are attractive for their pleasant weather. Due to the increased temperatures those regions are projected to be too hot for tourism activities, have poor climate conditions and low comfort levels, consequently lose their attractive feature or the peak season of tourism may shift from summer season to fall and spring. On the other hand, northern regions are expected to have moderate and warm weather conditions that are suitable for tourism activities. This situation may create new popular destinations in the global market. The precipitation is less likely preferred by tourists during their visitation. The sudden, unexpected and strong variations on precipitation generates uncertainty and affects the tourist preferences. Extreme weather event is a threat to tourism destinations due to the safety and security concerns. Climate change will also have negative impacts on tourism industry such as loss of resources, biodiversity, less snow cover, sea level rise. The natural heritage, beaches and environmental assets are the important components of destination attributes that contribute to attractiveness and competitiveness. The loss of these attributes is expected to influence the preferences of tourists. The changing pattern of tourism flow and impacts on local tourism markets inevitably generate socio-economic problems in those tourism dependent countries such as unemployment, decreased income and poverty. Therefore, investigating climate change impacts on tourism gains great importance to adapt the climate change, eliminate the risks and benefit the potentials. Today, Turkey is one of the most popular tourism destinations in the world. Turkey has climatic, natural and environmental attractions that successfully have been valued in the tourism sector and achieved to be recognized in the global market. Turkey is vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location in the Mediterranean region. Climate change projections on Turkey deduce 2-60C increase in temperatures especially in the summer period, 20% decrease in precipitation, and a longer warm period. According to researches, climate change will have adverse impacts on tourism sector, the popularity of the country as a tourism destination will diminish due to sea level rise, extreme weather events, the extreme hot waves, and loss of biodiversity and natural values. Both summer and winter tourism will be affected by these changes. The national strategic climate change plans mention the climate change impacts on tourism sector. There are also some studies focusing of specific destinations or tourism types and investigating climate change impacts on these areas and activities. Although the awareness of vulnerability of tourism sector to climate change has increased, there has no constructive step taken yet at national, local or academic level. A comprehensive perspective is missing in policy and strategy papers and literature. The impacts of climate change should be defined for each region, risks should be revealed and development strategies should be developed to eliminate the risks, mitigate the impacts and adapt to the changing conditions. From this point of view, this study mainly focused on: (i) "What are the impacts of climate change on tourism sector in Turkey in terms of regional challenges, international demand and socio-economic dynamics?" (ii) "How should be the roadmap of the sectoral development to manage climate change challenges; eliminate risks and benefit opportunities without jeopardizing the socio-economic structure?" The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on international tourism in popular tourism destinations in Turkey and provide a strategic roadmap. The objectives of the study are; (i) evaluating physical impacts of climate change in terms of changing comfort levels on popular tourism destinations in Turkey, (ii) investigating the reflections of these impacts on number of tourists, income and employment,(iii) revealing the different exposures to climate change by comparing different tourism destinations that have different climatic, geographic conditions as well as offer different tourism attractions and tourism types in Turkey, (iv) determining the most vulnerable tourism regions to climate change impacts, (v) addressing high risk regions (vi) highlighting opportunities that can be turned into benefit of destination's tourism industry, (vii) providing a tentative strategic framework for climate change responsive tourism development. In order to achieve this purpose, 30 tourism destinations in Turkey are included in the case study. While determining the case study cities, the number of tourists they host, their role in the Tourism Strategy Plan, tourism activities and geographic locations are taken into consideration. From different geographical regions, with different climatic character, having different tourism activities and attractiveness, 30 cities were selected. In order to evaluate the physical impacts of climate change on climate comfort levels, Tourism Climate Index (TCI) is used. The results of TCI analysis were used to estimate the potential impacts of climate change on international tourism demand. The model developed by Hein et al. (2009) assumes the climate as the only variable changing over time and the rest constant is used. The comparison between base year (1963-2017) and projected year (2019-2100) is revealed in terms of both climate comfort levels and the number of tourist/tourism demand. Finally, the socio-economic impacts of changing demand are evaluated by adapting Input-Output Analysis for national assessment and Ryan Short Cut Model for regional assessment. The results of the study reveal that the climate comfort levels are expected to decrease in the future up to 2100 comparing with today's climate conditions especially in summer period. On the other hand, comfort levels are projected to increase in winter period. Moreover, the impacts are different for each geographic region. There are highly vulnerable cities especially in coast line, and there are more resilient cities mostly located inland. Relationally, the demand in summer period is expected to decrease while the demand in winter is expected to increase. The coastal region is expected to be impacted negatively while inner Anatolia impacted slightly positive or neutral. Moreover, the seasonal shift is the most important outcome of the changing climate. The coastal tourism-dependent cities will be the most vulnerable areas under new climatic conditions. The socio-economic impacts of changing climatic conditions will be more intense for those tourism-dependent cities. The results reveal the regional opportunities for tourism investments and alternative tourism development. They also address the vulnerabilities and risks that can be managed through adaptation and mitigation strategies. Regarding these projected consequences, a proposal for climate change responsive tourism development plan is provided at the end of the study. This study highlights the climate change and tourism interaction, the impacts of climate change on Turkey's tourism industry from a comprehensive, comparative and multi-dimensional perspective and provides a roadmap to manage climate change impacts by revealing the regional potentials and vulnerabilities.