LEE- İşletme-Doktora
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Sustainable Development Goal "Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth" ile LEE- İşletme-Doktora'a göz atma
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ÖgeAssessing the impact of promotions on sales: A quantitative approach for a large-scale retailer's sales performance(Graduate School, 2022-07-05) Zeybek, Ömer ; Ülengin, Kemal Burç ; Kaya, Tolga ; 403162009 ; ManagementAmerican Marketing Association defines marketing as "a system and operational process which includes various interconnected subsystems, harmonising with co-contributor elements to reach maximum efficiency." This thesis seeks to understand and explain the role of the promotional mix, one of the four Ps of the marketing-mix problem. Although sales promotions were acknowledged as a dissolving stock activity by sales management literature until the late 1960s, with increasing competition in the retail sector, it has become a vital instrument to impulse sales both for the long term and short term. However, within three decades, especially after the introduction of the television and online media (proper mediums for transmitting instant offers), the sales promotion activities had become more sophisticated, and their frontiers had outstretched beyond the frontiers of a single chapter to a stand-alone book. In the meantime, technological advances in data storage and computation areas enable scholars to create complex, multi-channel promotion analyses; the literature recognised promotions as an essential element in the marketing system. As a result, the sales promotion domain has become one of the significant divisions of marketing literature. In a modern sense, as a critical element of the marketing mix, the promotion has three main objectives, providing information to consumers and others, increasing demand, differentiating a product or category, stabilising sales, and accentuating a product's value. Therefore, most of the tools used by retailers from the sales promotion toolbox could be taxonomised in the price promotions domain. Price promotions' concrete impulse and response mechanism ease the effort of tracking and understanding effects created by sales trends. However, To accomplish a price promotion task, a company needs a clear understanding of which kind of promotions are working and why? Although current business intelligence applications can reflect the flow of cash and stocks of a company, promotions have complex relationships with various Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) of a business system. This aspect makes distinguishing the next value-added from a promotion a complicated job. This thesis aims to portray a reliable quantitative model to decompose price promotion's effect on sales trends. Most studies in price promotions have only focused on single response mechanisms like category effect, cannibalism, cross-category effects or brand switching. This study aims to contain responses of all courses given above in a single inclusive system of equations. Formulating a complete model system for the pilot category would allow practitioners to replicate results to all product inventory and eases the decision-making process extensively. Regarding the outcome of the studies, managerial relevance can be classified on the timing and nature of the impact created. In modern retailers' daily lives, promotions are critical to sustaining an increase in demand in the long term. On the other hand, retailers expect promotions to act as a balancer on lowering excess stocks in the short term. That promotes current actions and future strategies for sustaining long term increased demand. Therefore, a researcher studying in this field, especially in the business intelligence domain, should be aware that they should provide actionable, essential and meaningful insights for the practitioners. In order to achieve these kinds of outcomes, academic scholars should suggest a decision-making process in which retailers can observe the response of sales trends to their strategic moves, which are mainly classified as exogenous effects. Developing a reliable base for assessing promotions' impact on sales is strongly related to formulating a correctly specified model. Therefore, market response models are beneficial, especially for researchers working on the company's secondary data compiled from the enterprise database. A response model exhibits how one variable depends on other variables. For example, dependent variables could be sales or other KPIs of interest to marketing practitioners. On the other hand, independent variables are assumed to affect the dependent variable. Together these variables constitute a market response model. A response model defined on time series or cross-sectional data as an empirical response model. Accordingly, if a researcher prefers to study the direct and secondary impacts of price promotions on the retail level, market response models extended with exogenous promotion policy variables would be a yielding alternative. On the other hand, it is possible that to solve the true nature of promotions (create academic knowledge) and create insightful managerial relevance (prescriptive analytics), quantitative methods, including econometric response models, are the most efficient way. In this dissertation, I aimed to provide this kind of dual knowledge discovery for academic research and the retail industry. The research is based on three hypotheses which led me to construct two categories /multi-brand promotional effectiveness models. While the first section of the empirical study formulates the variables used in the next part of the study, including volatility modelling to promotion effectiveness has created an alternative approach. The second part of my empirical work was my playground to decompose and analyse net sales effects created by price promotion. The findings concluded that promotional strategy significantly affects the sales quantity of category/brand pairs both in the long and short term. As expected, I concluded that most of the sales bump created through promotions stems from the product's own promotional activity. On the other hand, results provided that promotions applied to competitor brands and categories also cause a significant change in sales trends. This research provides a timely and necessary study of creating pioneering a central promotion effectiveness assessment system for practitioners. By utilising the models produced in this study, the retail executives could organise promotional strategies from a wide-angle.
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ÖgeComparison of stock selection methods: An empirical research on the borsa İstanbul(Graduate School, 2023-04-12) Özdemir, Ali Sezin ; Tokmakçıoğlu, Kaya ; 403142012 ; Business AdministrationVarious investment instruments or index-linked financial instruments in various markets, made with reference to stock indices, cause negative returns, i.e., loss, for investors in periods when the index is declining. In some cases, while the indices follow a course in line with the country's inflation, the funds or investment instruments linked to the relevant indices may not be at the desired level in terms of generating above market returns or above inflation. Investment companies have developed stock selection models for various portfolios, by using the literature for the funds and investment instruments they have created, to protect themselves from the negative movements of indices. Portfolio analysis methods developed to obtain positive returns from financial instruments can cause negative returns even in cases where the market is stable or stagnated due to adverse economic conditions and increased risks. In addition, investments made in financial instruments that reference only indices or various indices' derivatives may cause negative returns as the index is negatively affected by the economic effects in the relevant country. The issue of stock selection is an important issue not only for large investors but also for individual investors. Moreover, some funds (such as pension funds) belonging to the indices of different markets depend on the movements of the stocks in the market. For this reason, stock selection has been one of the most important issues in finance for the last hundred years. In the literature, a wide range of stock selection models with diverse theoretical underpinnings have been developed, particularly over the past seventy years. Moreover, numerous empirical and theoretical studies have been conducted to compare the performance of these models. In this thesis, three models that have not yet been empirically compared with each other in the literature have been identified, and an empirical study has been carried out on the stocks of Borsa Istanbul indices. The models compared are as follows: (1) Markowitz model stock selection (detection of the percentage distribution of stocks in the portfolio), (2) stock selection model with second-order stochastic dominance method, (3) stock selection method with artificial neural network method. All models are models that can be considered quantitative analysis, while the utilization of financial ratios within the ANN model signifies a fundamental approach in the realm of stock selection. In first section of this thesis, a review of relevant literature on stock selection is presented, with particular emphasis on the rationale behind selecting the Turkish stock market, specifically the Borsa Istanbul. The subsequent section of this study places emphasis on literature pertaining to the pertinent models. Within the third section, the theoretical foundations underpinning Markowitz's model, Second Order Stochastic Dominance, and Artificial Neural Networks, all of which are utilized within this research, are thoroughly expounded. The fourth section of this thesis provides a detailed account of the relevant 18-year dataset, alongside an explication of the technical structure of stock selection models. Specifically, the artificial neural network stock selection model was constructed using the MATLAB programming language, while Microsoft Excel application was utilized to conduct Markowitz and Stochastic Dominance tests. The fifth section of this thesis presents the results of a comparative analysis of the aforementioned models. Specifically, return values are tabulated and compared across the models. Based on the analysis, it has been determined that the stock selection model utilizing artificial neural networks demonstrates a relatively higher return potential compared to other models. Furthermore, all three models were found to be capable of generating portfolios with returns that were between 8 to 20 times higher than the BIST-100 index. This thesis aims to achieve several objectives, namely: (1) to conduct a comparative analysis of the return performance of three stock selection models whose relative performance has not yet been evaluated in the literature, (2) to undertake a quantitative analysis of the selected models, (3) to compare the alpha returns (i.e., portfolio return – index return) within a market context such as Turkey, where the stock market is consistently influenced by political and economic events, and (4) to contribute to the literature by introducing models that demonstrate the potential to generate portfolios with returns that surpass the market or index return.
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ÖgeRefugee entrepreneurship and the limits of inclusion: A study of Syrian refugee entrepreneurs' embeddedness in Turkey(Graduate School, 2022-08-18) Yetkin, Uğur ; Tunçalp, Deniz ; 403172006 ; ManagementAs a subset of immigrant entrepreneurship, the literature on refugee entrepreneurship argues that entrepreneurship has an emancipatory impact on refugee entrepreneurs. It helps people overcome imposed constraints, act more independently, and potentially transform their lives, making social inclusion easier. Furthermore, their context drastically changes when refugees flee to another country, requiring a dynamic embedding process in the new environment. This study critically examines how refugee entrepreneurs become embedded in their home and host countries and experience inclusion and exclusion in the host country. The researcher conducted a comprehensive study on how refugee entrepreneurs experience their entrepreneurial processes concerning their contextual embeddedness and social inclusion and exclusion dynamics in the host country. The study first laid out the theoretical background by clarifying integration, inclusion, exclusion, and immigrant entrepreneurship theories. Then, it described how embeddedness gained currency in immigrant entrepreneurship research. It outlines how the mixed embeddedness model emerged to understand the inherent complexity of immigrant and refugee entrepreneurship. Empirically, the study qualitatively analyzed Syrian refugee entrepreneurs in Turkey. Turkey has become the largest refugee-receiving country globally, hosting more than 4 million refugees, mainly from Syria. These refugees also become highly active in the Turkish business environment. The author interviewed 39 Syrian refugee entrepreneurs working in 14 sectors across seven Turkish cities and four critical informants. A qualitative analysis of these interviews through MAXQDA software identified three types of refugee entrepreneurship based on refugees' contextual embeddedness and entrepreneurial motivation: survival entrepreneurs, ethnic-targeting entrepreneurs, and integrating entrepreneurs. When refugee entrepreneurs become more embedded in a host country, they experience more differential exclusion and inclusion, depending on the type of their refugee entrepreneurship. Therefore, they constantly negotiate their societal position by developing unique strategies against exclusionary actors and structural barriers. The study analyzed the underlying reasons for the differential exclusion with the critical realist lens. Cultural differences and social status are the primary causal structures for exclusionary activities. Naturalization and forced migration act as generative mechanisms, activating the causal powers of these structures. Thus, entrepreneurship helps refugee entrepreneurs advance their economic integration. However, the deep-seated differential exclusion mechanisms limit the potential emancipatory impact of entrepreneurship for different types of refugee entrepreneurs. In addition to the theoretical implications of exclusion and inclusion, the study also uses the embeddedness perspective for understanding refugee entrepreneurship. It describes refugee entrepreneurs' unique social, institutional, political, and spatial embeddedness. Surprisingly, extant literature neglects political embeddedness and informal (cognitive and normative) aspects of institutional embeddedness. Also, the study argues that entrepreneurs in each category gradually develop embeddedness in multiple contexts (social, political, institutional, and spatial) and locations to varying degrees. Furthermore, it explains how refugee entrepreneurs dynamically get disembedded and re-embedded in the home and host countries to regain, sustain and grow their resources. Considering 86% of the refugees settle in developing countries, this study's empirical setting and results contribute to developing the unique refugee entrepreneurship subdomain. The study also provides practical implications regarding refugee entrepreneurs' integration and inclusion strategies. It stresses that labeling refugee entrepreneurs as "good migrants" and seeing them as "an economic opportunity" cause their problems to be pigeonholed and neglected. Furthermore, the "good refugee" discourse makes empty promises and discriminates against refugee entrepreneurs. When entrepreneurs realize it is not the case, they feel even more excluded from society. As a result, the author believes this dissertation opens new avenues in inclusion, exclusion, integration, and embeddedness research. Furthermore, the research presents some practical implications that could guide the policy-makers.