Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/11527/17635
Title: Kredi Risk Yönetiminde Mali Analiz
Authors: Teker, Suat
Talantimur, Pervin
107321
İşletme
Management
Keywords: İşletme
Banka kredileri
Bankalar
Finansal analiz
Krediler
Risk
Risk yönetimi
Business Administration
Bank credits
Banks
Financial analysis
Credits
Risk
Risk management
Issue Date: 2001
Publisher: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
Institute of Social Sciences
Abstract: Bankacılık sektöründe yaşanan ciddi problemler; yetersiz kredi standartları, zayıf portföy risk yönetimi ile banka müşterilerinin kredibilitesinde bozulmaya yol açabilecek ekonomik gelişmeler ve diğer koşullardaki değişmelerin iyi izlenememesinden kaynaklanmaktadır. Kredi kurumlarının karşılaşabilecekleri potansiyel temel riskler, kredi ve piyasa riskleridir. Kredi kurumları, mevduat kabul etme ve ödünç verme işlevleri nedeniyle çeşitli riskler altına girmektedir. Bunlardan kredi riski; bir bankanın kredi müşterisinin yada kendisiyle bir anlaşmaya taraf olan gerçek yada tüzel kişinin, anlaşma koşullarına uygun biçimde yükümlülüklerini yerine getirememesi riskidir. Kredi risk yönetiminin amacı; uygun parametreler içinde bankanın maruz kalabileceği riskleri yöneterek, getirişini maksimize etmektir. Bankalar portföylerindeki tüm kredi risklerini yönetmek ve diğer risklerle olan ilişkisini göz önünde bulundurmak durumundadır. Kredi riskinin etkin şekilde yönetimi, risk yönetimine kapsamlı bir yaklaşımın temel unsurlarından biri olarak kabul edilmektedir. Kredi riskine maruz kalınması, dünyadaki en önemli banka problemlerinden biri olduğundan, bankalar ve gözetim-denetim otoriteleri; kredi riskinin tespit edilmesi, ölçülmesi ve izlenmesi konularına büyük önem vermektedir. 2000 yılından itibaren Türkiye'de uygulanmaya başlayan dezenflasyon programıyla birlikte kredi ve kredi risk yönetimi faaliyetlerinin önem kazanması beklenmektedir. Bankalar, sağladıkları fonları ekonomiye yönlendirirken emniyet ve verim unsurlarım dikkate almaktadır. Kredilendirme; bankalar açısından karlı, karlı olduğu kadar da riskli bir uygulamadır. Kredi talebinde bulunan gerçek ve tüzel kişi firmaların, kredi değerliliklerinin ölçülmesinde etkin analiz yöntemlerinin kullanılmasına ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Türkiye'de kredi taleplerinin değerlendirilmesinde en yaygın olarak kullanılan yöntem finansal tabloların analizidir. Değişik ve ileri finansal analiz yöntemleri kullanılmakla birlikte kredi risk analizi, risk ölçe ve derecelendirme yöntemleri henüz yeterince kullanılmamaktadır. Günümüzde etkin bir kredi analizinin, iyi bir risk yönetimi politikasıyla mümkün olacağının önemi daha iyi anlaşılmıştır. Bu nedenle bankların kendi vizyonlarına ve yapılarına uygun politikaları geliştirmesi gerekmektedir. Dünya ve Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanan gelişmelerin yalandan izlenmesi ve sektörel etkilerinin erken tespit edilmesi, etkin kredi risk yönetiminin temel unsurları olarak kabul edilmektedir. Hazırlanan çalışmada, yeni kredi tahsisi yada mevcut kredilerin yenilenmesi sırasında kullanılan analiz tekniklerine farklı bir yaklaşım getirilmiştir. Rasyonel kredi kararlarının alınmasında temel teşkil eden faktörler üzerinde durulmuş ve kredi analizinin aşamaları detaylı bir şekilde incelenmiştir. Kredi risk analizi uygulamasında; dünya ekonomisindeki gelişmeler, OECD'nin hazırlamış olduğu "Dünya Ekonomisinin Görünümü" raporunda yayınlanan veriler doğrultusunda değerlendirilmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisindeki gelişmeler değerlendirilirken; 1998, 1999 ve 2000 yıllarının ilk altı-dokuz aylık dönemlerine ait verileriler kullanılmıştır. Analizde; GSMH, enflasyon oranları, konsolide bütçe ve ödemeler dengesi gibi temel makro ekonomik göstergeler yorumlanmıştır. Kredi risk analizinde, ülke ekonomisi ve sanayileşmede lokomotif sektör özelliğine sahip olması nedeniyle demir çelik sektörü incelenmiştir. Ekonomik konjonktürdeki gelişmeler ve sektörel beklentilerden hareketle, firmaların kalitatif ve kantitatif verileri detaylı bir şekilde analiz edilerek firma kredi değerlendirme raporları hazırlanmıştır. Kalitatif analizde firma, yapılan piyasa araştırması sonucu iç ve dış kaynaklardan sağlanan veriler doğrultusunda değerlendirilmektedir. Kalitatif analiz, ilk defa kredi ilişkisine girilecek firmalarda büyük önem taşımaktadır. Kantitatif analizde ise, firmanın finansal tabloları analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada; kredi risk analizinin, kredi kararlarının alınmasındaki önemini vurgulanmakta ve kredi talepleri değerlendirilirken izlenen analiz aşamaları detaylı bir şekilde incelenmektedir.
While financial institutions have faced difficulties over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk management is to maximise a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the long-term success of any banking organisation. For most banks, loans are the largest and most obvious source of credit risk; however, other sources of credit risk exist throughout the activities of a bank, including in the banking book and in the trading book, and both on and off the balance sheet. Banks are increasingly facing credit risk (or counterparty risk) in various financial instruments other than loans, including acceptances, interbank transactions, trade financing, foreign exchange transactions, financial futures, swaps, bonds, equities, options, and in the extension of commitments and guarantees, and the settlement of transactions. Since exposure to credit risk continues to be the leading source of problems in banks world-wide, banks and their supervisors should be able to draw useful lessons from past experiences. Banks should now have a keen awareness of the need to identify, measure, monitor and control credit risk as well as to determine that they hold adequate capital against these risks and that they are adequately compensated for risks incurred. Credit risk management specifically address the following areas: a. Establishing an appropriate credit risk environment, b. Operating under a sound credit-granting process, c. Mamtaining an appropriate credit administration, measurement and monitoring process, d. Ensuring adequate controls over credit risk. Although specific credit risk management practices may differ among banks depending upon the nature and complexity of their credit activities, a comprehensive credit risk management program will address these four areas. These practices should Xll also be applied in conjunction with sound practices related to the assessment of asset quality, the adequacy of provisions and reserves, and the disclosure of credit risk. The 3 C's of credit should be the foundation of all credit decisions Credit managers' responsibility is to identify and minimize risk. That equates to making sound credit decisions based on basic credit principles, Character, Capacity and Capital. Commonly referred to as the 3 C's of credit these should be the foundation to every credit decision. 1. Character: Considered to be the most important of the 3 C's this equates to willingness. A willingness to provide information, a willingness to answer our questions, a willingness to return telephone calls and most importantly a willingness to pay. 2. Capacity: Capacity is the ability to pay. It is not enough to be willing to pay, although that is a good sign; one has to have the ability to pay. That means that current assets exceed current liabilities, which provides net working capital. If current assets are insufficient to pay existing current obligations then how is our new debt to be repaid? It is not necessary to have a financial statement to determine this. What amount of balances is maintained in bank accounts? How much debt is listed on a credit report and what is the payment history? 3. Capital; Capital is the ability to raise debt. In the event capacity is lacking does the applicant have the ability to raise additional debt through borrowing against or liquidating assets. To determine the answer to this question we have to ask questions concerning assets, current and fixed, and the ability of the applicant to raise additional debt if needed whether it be secured or unsecured. The analysis of the applicant utilizing the 3 C's will determine the criteria that we should use in making our credit decisions. Credit decisions have nothing to do with competition, industry standards and the current market environment. Those factors are utilized in making business decisions that often take precedence over credit decisions. Financial statement analysis: A financial statement is made up of 5 components: -The Opinion Letter -The Balance Sheet -The Income Statement -The Statement of Cash Flows -The Notes If you have any less then the above you do not have a financial statement but rather a component of a financial statement. Good financial statement analysis involves looking at details to understand the "big picture" of your customer's financial statement. 1. A private company's profitability goals generally involve tax saving strategies. 2. Trend analysis is better when more years are analyzed. If possible, try to obtain at least 3 years of financial statements in order to complete good trend analysis. Xlll 3. Financial statement analysis is not the "end all" to understanding your customer's financial situation. Many times financial statement analysis raises more questions than it answers. You can find out what is going on with your customer. 4. Compare your customer's financial ratios with industry averages of like size companies. Industry averages are not the final ratio numbers that your customer should maintain, but, rather, a general rule of thumb to give you an indication of where other like size companies in their industry stand. 5. What gets included in cost of goods sold may vary from company to company and from industry to industry. When analyzing gross margin, if this number appears lower than normal for your industry, try to determine if your customer includes an expense in cost of goods sold which generally is found in general and administrative expenses. If this is the case, year to year trends and the operating income percentage give a better picture than an industry comparison of the gross margin percentage. 6. Try to find out the owner-related expenses if you are analyzing a private company. These expenses include owner's salary and bonus, car expense and travel. It will give you a better picture of true profitability. 7. An analysis of the operating percentage (operating income divided by sales) will help you understand the profitability trend of a company before taking into account the financing and non-operating related activities. 8. Sometimes operating efficiency ratios (days receivables outstanding, inventory turns, days payables outstanding) may look extremely high or low If this happens, it is important to ask questions which might shed light on how they manage their company or record their transactions. If days receivables outstanding are extremely low, find out if they are factoring their receivables. If high, do they have in-house extended financing to their customers? If inventory turns are extremely slow compared to industry averages, do they have old inventory on hand? If days payables outstanding is extremely high, are they receiving special terms from major suppliers or is there something other than trade vendors in accounts payable? 9. Look the surface of bank debt. Try to find out what their bank debt is made up of, how large their credit line facility is, how much of their credit facility is currently being used and when their loans are due. A company maxed out on their credit line may be a higher risk than a company using only half of their credit line, even if the amount of debt is the same. If their credit facility is coming due soon, you may want to follow up about the status of bank negotiations. 10. When leverage is high, always try to understand what has caused the high leverage. If the company has been in the acquisition mode, or is a new company, it might be perfectly normal to see a higher leverage ratio. All factors must be taken into account. Financial ratios: Why are we looking at the financial reports? -Is the business profitable? -Can the business pay its bills? XIV -How is the business financed? -How does this year compare to last year? -How does the business compare to the industry norms? These key questions indicate that the financial health of a company is dependent on a combination of profitability, short-term liquidity and long term liquidity. Historically, greater emphasis was placed on profitability. Companies, which are profitable, but have poor short term or long term liquidity measures, do not survive the troughs of the trade cycle. As trading becomes difficult in a recession such companies experience financial difficulties and fail, or may be taken over. In contrast, companies, which are not profitable but are cash rich, do not survive in the long term either. Such companies are taken over for their cashflows or by others who believe that they can improve the profitability of the business. Thus, those companies that do succeed and survive over the long term have a well-rounded financial profile, and perform well in all aspects of financial analysis. It is important when reviewing each aspect of financial performance to highlight any significant changes in performance, either compared to last year or compared to a competitor. Highlighting significant changes enables you to focus on key events or major factors that may have important implications for the company. Finally, look at financial performance within the context of the political, business and economic environment in which the business operates
Description: Tez (Yüksek Lisans) -- İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, 2001
Thesis (M.A.) -- İstanbul Technical University, Institute of Social Sciences, 2001
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/11527/17635
Appears in Collections:İşletme Lisansüstü Programı - Yüksek Lİsans

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